Ontario, Canada
Conditions are below the threshold for this location. Kp needs to reach about 5.3 before aurora clears the horizon here — that is 5 higher than right now.
Sudbury sits at 46.5° geographic, but the oval is centred on the magnetic pole.
The storm strength that puts the auroral oval directly above you.
Solid cloud cover. Even a strong display will be invisible from here.
Sun rises again at 06:24. Aurora peaks near magnetic midnight.
The auroral oval is a ring centred on Earth's magnetic pole, not the geographic one. That is why Sudbury — at 46.5° geographic latitude — behaves like a 55.7° location as far as aurora is concerned. A higher Kp pushes the ring further from the pole, and the number you need is set entirely by that geomagnetic figure.
From here, aurora starts to clear the northern horizon at around Kp 5.3, and reaches directly overhead at around Kp 7.3. Find a spot with an unobstructed view north and away from street lighting. Give your eyes twenty minutes to adjust, and remember that a camera picks up colour long before the naked eye does.
We'll email you when the Kp index is forecast to pass 5.3 — the threshold for Sudbury, Ontario. Nothing else.
Kp index and forecast from NOAA SWPC. Cloud cover and sun times from Open-Meteo. Geomagnetic latitude uses the IGRF-14 dipole for epoch 2025.