What the sun is expected to send our way over the next three days
Activity peaks at Kp 5.67, a G1 storm on NOAA's five-step scale. There is up to a 40% chance each day of a brief radio blackout. The chance of a radiation storm is up to 10%.
Bars show the expected Kp index for each 3-hour window, in UTC. Kp runs from 0 to 9 and measures how disturbed Earth's magnetic field is. Percentages are the chance of at least a minor event that day.
Storm-level activity pushes the aurora away from the poles, so it can reach places that rarely see it. Dark, clear skies still decide the night. Check your location
Up to a 40% chance each day of a solar flare that weakens or briefly cuts shortwave (HF) radio on the sunlit side of Earth. A stronger blackout is unlikely.
Up to a 10% chance each day of a solar radiation storm, which mainly affects polar flight routes and satellite electronics.
Weak power-grid fluctuations and small effects on satellite operations are possible, mostly at high latitudes.
G1-G2 (Minor-Moderate) geomagnetic storms are likely on 09 Oct due to the anticipated arrival of a CME from 06 Oct.
The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 3 (below NOAA Scale levels). The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Oct 08-Oct 10 2026 is 5.67 (NOAA Scale G2).
There is a slight chance (10%) for a greater than 10 MeV proton event exceeding the 10 pfu (S1-Minor) threshold through 10 Oct.
Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-18 over the past 24 hours, was below S-scale storm level thresholds.
Solar activity is expected to be at low levels with a strong chance(40%) for further M-class flares (R1-R2, Minor-Moderate) through 10 Oct, particularly from Region 4549.
No radio blackouts were observed over the past 24 hours.
| UTC | Oct 8 | Oct 9 | Oct 10 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 00–03 | 1.00 | 1.67 | 4.00 |
| 03–06 | 1.67 | 5.00 | 3.67 |
| 06–09 | 1.00 | 4.33 | 3.00 |
| 09–12 | 2.00 | 5.67 | 3.00 |
| 12–15 | 1.00 | 4.00 | 2.67 |
| 15–18 | 1.67 | 3.00 | 2.33 |
| 18–21 | 1.67 | 3.00 | 2.33 |
| 21–00 | 1.67 | 4.00 | 2.67 |
Source: NOAA SWPC official 3-day forecast, checked every 30 minutes
